How to Tell If a London New Build Is Overpriced
New builds in London are designed to feel premium. Clean finishes. Lifestyle amenities. Smooth sales process. The difficulty for buyers is that price and value are not the same thing. Many new builds are not badly built. They are simply overpriced for what the market will actually support.
Here is how to tell the difference before you commit.
Compare Price Per Square Foot With Resale Stock
This is the fastest reality check.
Calculate the price per square foot of the new build and compare it with completed resale flats nearby. Not other new builds. Not asking prices. Actual sold properties.
If the new build carries a significant premium with no clear justification beyond being new, you are likely paying for launch pricing rather than market value.
Newness fades. Comparables remain.
Strip Out Incentives and Recalculate Value
Stamp duty contributions, furniture packages, service charge holidays, and cashback offers inflate the headline price.
Remove them mentally and ask what the flat would be worth without extras. That number is closer to true value.
If the price only makes sense with incentives, it is probably too high.
Check How Many Units Are Still Unsold
A development with a large number of unsold units months after launch is sending a signal.
Developers will protect headline prices for as long as possible. Instead of cutting prices, they increase incentives. This often means the market is resisting the number, not the product.
Unsold stock equals pricing friction.
Look at Size and Layout Efficiency
New builds are often smaller than they appear on paper.
Check how much of the square footage is actually usable. Long corridors, oversized bathrooms, and open plan kitchens that consume living space reduce livability.
If the flat feels tight for its size, you are paying high density pricing for compromised space.
Compare Running Costs Not Just Purchase Price
High service charges reduce affordability and resale demand.
If a new build has concierge desks, gyms, lifts, and shared workspaces, the monthly cost can be significant and rise over time.
An overpriced flat often reveals itself through long term costs rather than upfront price.
Ask What It Would Rent For Today
Rental reality is a powerful truth teller.
If the rent the flat could achieve today does not support the purchase price once service charges are included, the valuation is optimistic.
Strong rental demand supports price. Weak yield exposes overpricing.
Check Mortgage Valuation Sensitivity
New builds are more prone to down valuations.
If you would struggle to complete the purchase if the lender valued the flat slightly lower than the agreed price, the pricing is fragile.
Overpriced flats often depend on perfect conditions to complete.
Watch How the Developer Is Selling
Urgency language, short deadlines, and heavy reliance on incentives are warning signs.
Confident pricing does not need pressure. If the sales process feels rushed or overly persuasive, the price likely needs defending.
Compare With Older Flats in Better Locations
Often the biggest red flag is this simple comparison.
If an older flat in a better location offers more space and lower costs for similar money, the new build premium needs strong justification.
If the justification is mostly emotional or future focused, it is probably overpriced.
Ask Who Will Buy It From You
Overpricing becomes obvious at resale.
Ask who the next buyer would be. If the flat only appeals to first time buyers stretching budgets or investors chasing incentives, demand may be thin later.
Broad appeal supports price. Narrow appeal exposes it.
Final Thought
A London new build is overpriced when its value depends on optimism rather than evidence.
True value holds up without incentives, without urgency, and without future promises. It survives comparison with resale stock and remains affordable to live in over time.
If the price needs explaining, defending, or justifying, it is already under pressure.